Jaguars’ Up‑and‑Down Offseason After Breakout 2025

The 2025 season turned the Jacksonville Jaguars from a struggling franchise into AFC South champions. A nine‑win jump—evident when they finished 13‑4 after a 4‑13 campaign—propelled the team into the playoffs for the first time since 2017. Head coach Liam Coen praised the turnaround, noting the team would not simply repeat the same approach that delivered those victories.

This year’s roster moves tell a different story. Jacksonville signed just six free agents, spending a league‑low $21.4 million, while the league average was above $39 million. Key departures include running back Travis Etienne Jr., linebacker Devin Lloyd and cornerback Greg Newsome II, all of whom were slated to start. The Jaguars also lack a first‑round pick after trading up for defensive back Travis Hunter the previous year.

The draft and free‑agent signings illustrate a strategy built around internal development. The only prime‑time pick was tight end Nate Boerkircher (56th overall), a pure blocker who fits the league’s multi‑tight end trend. Free‑agent additions were limited to running back Chris Rodriguez ($10 million, two years) to replace Etienne and edge defender Dennis Gardeck ($6.5 million) for pass‑rush depth. The signing of Rodriguez came in a season where no other addition cost more than $1.3 million.

Defensive performance saw the most dramatic shift. In 2024 the Jaguars ranked 31st in DVOA, 31st in EPA allowed and dead last in passing yards allowed. Last season they finished sixth in DVOA and fifth in EPA, a jump that stunned analysts. Core pieces such as Josh Hines‑Allen, Arik Armstead, Foyesade Oluokun and safety Antonio Johnson all thrived under first‑time defensive coordinator Anthony Campanile, who returned to Jacksonville after lucrative interview offers.

Trevor Lawrence anchored the offense after an extended adjustment period. He threw for 4,007 yards and 29 touchdowns, while adding 359 rushing yards and nine scores. His 96.5 passer rating in the final 12 games would have been a career best if posted for a full season. Coen praised Lawrence’s growth, saying he now “plays with nobody messing with his group.” Despite the progress, Lawrence still shows turnover issues, with 12 interceptions in the season.

Travis Hunter’s dual‑role status remains a central storyline. Prior to a season‑ending knee injury in October, he saw 67 % of offensive snaps and 36 % of defensive reps. His first 100‑yard receiving game came against the Los Angeles Rams in London, and he generated buzz as a potential two‑way talent. The Jaguars drafted him with the second overall pick, calling him “two second‑rounders in one,” but his limited usage has sparked debate over the trade’s value.

If everything clicks, Jacksonville could contend for a Super Bowl. Last season the team’s DVOA placed them ahead of the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots—playoffs participants—showing the unit can match elite offenses. A healthy Lawrence, a fully regained defense and a balanced passing attack give the Jaguars realistic hopes of repeating their playoff run.

The regression risk is just as real. Defensive metrics tend to bounce back toward the mean—a concept known as the “plexiglass principle.” With minimal offseason spending and key contributors lost, the defense may slide back into the bottom half of the league. A sophomore slump could leave the Jaguars missing the postseason, with Lawrence looking more like the middling quarterback he was before Coen’s arrival.

Current betting odds peg Jacksonville at an 8.5‑win total, roughly a coin flip for a playoff berth. The quiet offseason moves suggest the team is prioritizing long‑term cap flexibility over an immediate push. Still, the mix of young talent, a maturing quarterback and a defensive coordinator who seems to have the scheme dialed in keeps the franchise in a position to improve rather than collapse.