Justin Rose’s Tough Start at 2026 Open Championship

Rose Returns to Royal Birkdale

Justin Rose, a 45‑year‑old Englishman, is back at Royal Birkdale for the 2026 Open Championship. He first made his mark there as a 17‑year‑old amateur in 1998 and now arrives as one of the pre‑tournament favorites. Since his lone major win in 2013, Rose has missed the Open cut only once, including two second‑place finishes chasing the Claret Jug.

A Rough First Round Leaves Questions

Rose opened with a +5 score on Thursday, July 16, recording seven bogeys despite conditions that seemed conducive to low scoring. The early tee times appeared to favor scoring, yet he struggled to convert opportunities into pars. His opening round performance leaves him just outside the projected cut line and adds pressure to his chances of reaching the weekend.

Live Projected Cut Line: What It Means

The current projected cut sits at +1, meaning golfers at or better than that score will advance to Friday. Data Golf’s live model gives a 27.9 % chance the cut stays at +1, a 36.8 % chance it moves to +2, and a 20.2 % chance it climbs to +3. More than half of the 156‑player field will be eliminated after the 36‑hole cut following Round 2, making the projected line crucial for the rest of the field.

Who’s in Danger After Round One

One player under immediate pressure is Padraig Harrington, now sitting at +4 after five holes. He will need a strong finish to avoid missing the cut and staying in the top‑70 (and ties) that qualify for the weekend. The strict cut rule limits the field after Friday, intensifying the competition for those hovering just above the projected line.

Top Performers So Far on the Leaderboard

A few players have set the early pace at Royal Birkdale. Robert MacIntyre, Francesco Molinari, Scottie Scheffler, and Bryson DeChambeau are all tied at -3, positioning them comfortably inside the weekend cutoff. Their early scores signal strong form heading into the second round.

Below is a quick visual roundup of golfers who have claimed PGA Tour victories in the 2026 season.

For the complete standings, check out the full 2026 Open Championship leaderboard.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Open Championship cut tracker: Live projected line, who’s in danger.