Paul Skenes Struggles Early in 2026 Despite Elite Stuff

Consistency Meets Uncertainty

After two seasons of near‑perfect work – a 1.96 ERA as a rookie and a 1.97 ERA the following year – Paul Skenes entered 2026 looking to keep that momentum. Instead, the reigning NL Cy Young winner opened the campaign with his most lopsided start of the career and saw his velocity dip. By the time the All‑Star break arrived, his ERA sat at 3.57, a stark contrast to the sub‑2.00 marks he posted earlier.

The decline forced the Pirates into a troubleshooting mode. Skenes lost nine straight decisions at one point, a stretch that left him feeling “healthy” and “good” despite the drop in velocity. He acknowledges the numbers look off but insists he is still delivering at a high level, maintaining that pitch speed isn’t his primary concern.

Elite Peripherals Mask Poor Results

Beyond the raw ERA, the advanced metrics paint a different picture. Skenes’ 2.88 Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) and 2.72 expected ERA (xERA) sit well below his actual 3.57 run average. His strand rate – 66.3% – is the worst of his career and falls short of the league average, suggesting that bad fortune has played a role.

In his own words, “I don’t think I’ve thrown the ball poorly… the strikeout rate is in a very good spot. The walk rate is in a good spot.” Those peripherals show he is still generating swings and misses while keeping walks low, even if runs are finding the back of the net. The disparity between his performance indicators and the ERA has turned the first half into what he called “a weird” period.

Admitting Flaws, a B‑grade Effort

Skenes graded his early season showing with a modest “B,” conceding the outing was “not terrible” but “could have been better.” He frames the struggles as a learning curve, believing he can bounce back once the second half begins. With the Pirates riding an elite offensive surge, they will need their ace to return to form to stay in the playoff hunt.

The team’s lineup has been a bright spot this year, fueling optimism that a rebound from Skenes could swing the entire postseason picture. If he can tighten up his command and stabilize his strand rate, the Pirates’ rotation may quickly revert to the dominant unit that anchored their recent success.