Top MLB Home Run Bets for July 17, 2026

Season Performance Snapshot

The MLB best home run prop betting segment limped into the All‑Star break, posting a modest 16‑57 record. Three of those picks were “no‑bets,” meaning the selected players did not start on the day the home run prop was placed. Despite the modest win rate, the stratification of long‑shot wagers generated a $642 profit for anyone who bet $100 on each prop at the listed odds.

Going into Friday’s slate, 15 games are on the schedule, offering a deeper pool of home‑run opportunities. Two left‑handed hitters stand out because of favorable pitching matchups and park factors that boost the likelihood of a finish over the box score. Their odds are available at DraftKings Sportsbook, making them the focal points for today’s home‑run propositions.

Tonight’s Picks: Yordan Alvarez & Mickey Moniak

Yordan Alvarez (Houston Astros – OF) carries the Over 0.5 HR at +262. The 29‑year‑old slugger leads the league with 31 home runs and ranks second in that category. In 334 plate appearances against right‑handed pitchers, he has collected 23 round‑trips, with 16 of those coming at home and 12 of the home homers coming off righties.

Alvarez’s raw power metrics are elite. He tops the list in barrels per plate appearance (12.4%) and maximum exit velocity (118.5 mph). He also sits seventh in barrels per batted‑ball event (18.6%) and tenth in hard‑hit rate (53.2%). His launch‑angle sweet‑spot rate of 42.9% and steepest launch angle of 19.8° further underscore his ability to get the ball above the fence.

Pitcher Dean Kremer provides the perfect backdrop. The 30‑year‑old righty foes a league‑high 3.68 HR/9, allowing nine homers across four starts. Kremer has surrendered seven home runs to left‑handed hitters, making him especially vulnerable to Alvarez’s platoon advantage.

Daikin Park amplifies the odds. Its home‑run park factor of 115 is tied for the fifth‑highest mark in MLB, giving Alvarez an added boost when he steps to the plate.

Mickey Moniak (Colorado Rockies – OF) carries the Over 0.5 HR at +271. The left‑handed outfielder has compiled 24 home runs against right‑handed pitchers at Coors Field since the start of 2025. His at‑home statistics include a 22.1% line‑drive rate, a 46.6% fly‑ball rate, and a respectable 20.7% home‑run‑per‑fly‑ball rate.

Moniak’s bat shows power potential. He ranks tied for 43rd in barrels per plate appearance (8.4%) and tied for 50th in barrels per batted‑ball event (12.4%). His steepest launch angle of 22.6° is the sixth best in the league, reflecting a propensity to launch balls high.

Brady Singer is the projecting culprit. The right‑handed starter yields a 2.01 HR/9, the third‑most among today’s probable starters. Singer has allowed 20 homers in 18 starts, with at least one round‑trip in 12 of those games and multiple homers in six.

Coors Field’s environment helps, too. The park’s home‑run factor sits at 108, tying for 12th best in MLB, and Moniak’s platoon advantage pairs well with the thin‑air conditions. The combination of a vulnerable pitcher, a hitter who excels against righties at home, and a hitter‑friendly park makes Moniak the more enticing pick of the night.

Key Takeaways for Bettors

Both Alvarez and Moniak boast strong power metrics and favorable pitching matchups, yet their odds remain relatively chalky at +262 and +271 respectively. The Astros slugger benefits from a premier park factor and a pitcher who struggles most with left‑handed bats. The Rockies outfielder leans on a high‑altitude venue and a pitcher who has allowed an excess of homers to left‑handed hitters.

Betting the Over 0.5 HR on each player aligns with the current profit trajectory of MLB best home run bets. While the season record may look unimpressive, the systematic focus on deep‑value props has paid off, as evidenced by the $642 haul for a $100 stake per pick.

The Friday slate offers 15 games, so the window for action is still open. Players looking for a quick, high‑confidence home‑run play can center their tickets on these two left‑handed threats, leveraging both statistical edge and environmental boost.