Early Tee Times Could Crown The 154th Open Winner

Morning Scores That Upended The Leaderboard

Golf statistician Justin Ray has long argued that the champion usually emerges from the top of the standings on Sunday. This week at the 154th Open Championship, however, the three lowest round scores all arrived during the morning session. Playing before the wind picked up, Lucas Herbert, Sam Burns and Ryan Fox each carded an 8‑under 62, turning early tee times into a scoring advantage.

By the time the afternoon wave hit, gusts had intensified and the fairways grew more challenging. Herbert entered Friday with a five‑shot deficit and left the day with a two‑shot lead. Burns started the day eight shots behind only to sit just three back by nightfall. Fox, eight back of Herbert on Saturday morning, will step onto the first tee on Sunday one shot ahead of Herbert and two behind Burns.

Why Tee Times Matter This Week

Sunday’s forecast mirrors the previous two days: calm conditions in the morning, with gusts building after noon. Players teeing off between 9 a.m. and 11:30 a.m. local time will therefore enjoy the same benign window that produced three sub‑62 scores. The leaders—Burns (‑10), Si Woo Kim (‑8) and Fox (‑8)—all have later start times, which may cost them valuable scoring opportunities.

DataGolf projects the winning total will land somewhere between ‑10 and ‑13, with ‑11 the most likely finish. Because the lowest score recorded this week is 62, anyone entering the final round at ‑3 or better remains mathematically in contention for a low‑score surge.

Players With Early Windows In The Mix

Rory McIlroy sits at ‑2 and holds an early tee slot, giving him a chance to post another historic round. No one expects a breakthrough from the Northern Irishman without a near‑perfect performance, but the morning conditions are perfect for birdies. McIlroy’s morning start also highlights his reputation for “backdoor” majors, where a hidden advantage materializes under the right circumstances.

At ‑3, Justin Thomas and Robert MacIntyre are positioned ideally—close enough to chase the projected ‑11 while still holding morning tee times. Both have demonstrated the ability to launch into a scoring spree when conditions align. Their early tee times could be the catalyst that pushes them into contention.

The ‑4 group includes Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler. Schauffele already boasts two 62s at majors, Rahm posted a 63 at the 2023 Open, and Scheffler, the world’s top-ranked player, is capable of any outcome if his putter finds the sweet spot. Their tee times cluster just after the prime morning window, leaving a narrow window for low scoring.

The Final Round Equation

Shane Lowry, who sits at ‑4, summed up the mood among the field: “I feel like anyone inside the top 20 will surely feel like if they have the round of their lives they feel like they can win The Open tomorrow.” His perspective captures the belief that a single perfect round can upend the leaderboard, especially when morning conditions remain favorable.

Will the wind still be manageable when the top‑ranked players tee off? Scheffler (12:45), Rahm (12:55), Lowry (12:55) and Schauffele (1:30) are in the latter half of the start list. In contrast, McIlroy tees off at 11:30, comfortably within the sweet spot. “Never say never,” McIlroy said, “but I certainly am not going out tomorrow thinking like I’ve got a great chance to win.”

Burns remains the intra‑field favorite with a 62‑65 stretch, though his Thursday 73 came when he played a late afternoon tee time (2:31). Sunday’s start is slated for 2:20, just minutes earlier but still after the prime morning window. If he repeats his recent low‑score surge, the entire early‑tee‑time narrative may become irrelevant.