Sean McVay’s 2nd‑and‑10 Pass Strategy

Why Play‑Calling Shifts After a First‑Down Miss

The modern NFL pits tradition against data, and rookie analysts have been tracking how coaches react to a missed opportunity on first down. NFL analyst Ryan Paganetti notes that many play‑callers fall back on the run when faced with 2nd‑and‑10 after an incompletion, assuming a safer, more conservative path. Los Angeles Rams head coach Sean McVay has consistently resisted that instinct, choosing to stay aerial in those exact situations.

Charting from Paganetti using Fantasy Points Data and nflfastR reveals the Rams have been one of the league’s most pass‑heavy units in this scenario. McVay’s approach is not a fluke; it is supported by a comprehensive dataset covering the 2022‑2025 seasons.

Rams Lead the League in Passing on 2nd‑and‑10

Across 73 games from 2022 through 2025, McVay faced 192 instances of 2nd‑and‑10 after a first‑down miss. He dialed up 140 passes and only 52 runs, setting a 72.9% pass rate that ranks fourth in the NFL. The numbers demonstrate a clear preference for the air game, even when the default tendency is to run.

This high‑percentage passing approach has been a hallmark of McVay’s tenure since he took over the Rams in 2017. While many coaches grow cautious about third‑down distances, McVay treats each 2nd‑and‑10 as a chance to generate explosive chunk plays.

The Analytics Favor the Air Game

League‑wide data shows that throwing on 2nd‑and‑10 after a miss yields a +16.6 percentage point edge in success rate compared to running the ball. The added value translates to +0.23 Expected Points Added per play and lifts the eventual series success rate by an extra 6.5 percentage points. These metrics heavily back McVay’s consistent aerial aggression.

The 2025 season crowned the Rams with the NFL’s most productive overall offense, proving that the data‑driven choice can also deliver on‑field results. The philosophy not only fits the modern analytics landscape but also aligns with fan expectations for high‑octane football.

Disciples and Influence Across the NFL

McVay’s playbook has found followers in the top ranks of play‑calling. Tampa Bay Buccaneers offensive coordinator Zack Robinson, who learned under McVay in Los Angeles, tops the list with an 82.9% pass rate in these situations. Cincinnati Bengals head coach Zac Taylor, a former Rams quarterbacks coach, sits just ahead of his old boss, while Jacksonville Jaguars head coach Liam Coen—once McVay’s offensive coordinator—appears near the bottom of the list at No. 9.

These connections illustrate how McVay’s willingness to stay pass‑heavy on 2nd‑and‑10 has reshaped strategic thinking across the league. As more staffs review the same analytics, the Rams’ approach may become the new benchmark for handling this critical down.