49ers Projected for 9.83 Wins in 2026

PFF’s Outlook for 2026

The latest projection from Pro Football Focus puts the San Francisco 49ers at an average of 9.83 wins for the upcoming season. This figure ranks the 49ers tenth among all NFL teams and lands them third in the NFC West division. The estimate is slightly lower than the 10.5‑win total that opened with bettors on February 18. The difference reflects how the 49ers’ offseason activity has been factored into the new simulations.

Offseason Moves and Core Stability

San Francisco’s front office added standout talent while preserving its veteran backbone. The club signed prized receiver Mike Evans, acquired defensive tackle Osa Odighizuwa via trade, and selected Alabama’s De’Zhaun Stribling in the second round. At the same time, the team kept its foundational pieces intact, setting the stage for a balanced roster.

Quarterback Brock Purdy enters camp as the face of the offense after mastering Kyle Shanahan’s system. Purdy was listed as the NFL’s 85th‑best player in the recent “Top 100 Players of 2026” list, though he missed the ESPN top‑10 quarterback survey. Left tackle Trent Williams, now in his 16th season, locked in a two‑year extension following a second‑team All‑Pro campaign in 2025. Running back Christian McCaffrey, who stayed healthy for all 17 games last year, recorded 1,202 rushing yards and added 924 receiving yards on 102 catches.

Returning Stars from Injury

Health is a key factor in the revised forecast. The 49ers will see tight end George Kittle, linebacker Fred Warner and edge rusher Nick Bosa back on the field after missing parts of 2025. Kittle is rehabbing a torn Achilles suffered in the wild‑card round, while Bosa and Warner both missed significant time with injuries. A fuller roster could lift San Francisco’s win total compared with the previous season.

What This Means for the Season

After a 2025 campaign that kept the 49ers within two games of the division crown despite numerous injuries, the current projection suggests modest upside. The addition of premium players combined with the return of key defenders positions San Francisco as a potential playoff contender. If the health improvements hold and the offense clicks, the 49ers could exceed the 9.83‑win average projected by PFF.