Five Hitters Ready to Explode in the Second Half

Expected metrics show which players are likely to rebound when the calendar flips. A look at the largest gaps between expected batting average (xBA) and actual batting average (BA) reveals a handful of players whose true skill level should translate into higher averages soon.

The same analysis applied to expected wOBA versus actual wOBA uncovers another layer of undervalued talent. The visual below highlights hitters whose counting stats lag behind what advanced metrics predict.

Brandon Nimmo, OF – Rangers (70% rostered)

Nimmo posted a season‑low home‑run rate of 8.8%, well under his career average, but his underlying skills suggest a correction is overdue. The Rangers’ park sits 12th for left‑hander home‑run factors this year, offering a modest boost for a power threat. His barrel rate sits at a career‑best 9.1% per plate appearance, and he now posts a 102.4 mph exit velocity on his hardest hits, placing him 43rd in the league.

In deeper leagues Nimmo can be a high‑ upside streamer, while five‑outfielder formats make him a viable trade target given his consistent presence in the middle of the Rangers order. Expect a power surge that could lift him back toward 20+ home runs.

Mike Trout, OF – Angels (96% rostered)

Trout missed nearly a month with a hamstring issue but was on pace for roughly 40 homers before the setback. His expected wOBA far exceeds his actual mark, hinting at unlucky sequencing rather than a decline in talent. This season he barrels the ball at an 11% clip and lifts it into the air 21.9% of the time, both edging above career norms.

The Angels’ lineup should benefit from Trout’s improved contact rate of 79.6%, which sits nearer to his career average. If he stays healthy and continues to hit hard, a return to the 35‑home‑run range is realistic, matching his best output since 2022. A modest walk rate and solid plate discipline reinforce his potential for a resurgence.

Fantasy managers watching for health red flags might view Trout’s recent return as a buying opportunity, especially with his underlying metrics pointing upward. His seven stolen bases add a defensive spark, though projection systems expect a slowdown to around ten for the full season.

Bobby Witt Jr., SS – Royals (99% rostered)

Witt has stolen 30 bases in the first half and is slated for 45+ steals league‑wide, backed by a 33% opportunity rate that outpaces recent seasons. While his barrel rate sits at 9%, matching his career average, his home‑run rate is right on par with his historic 10.3% last year, so he hasn’t been unlucky on that front. A career‑high 9.7% walk rate, driven by a 48% swing rate, shows added patience at the plate.

Despite a dip in his pulled‑air percentage to 13.6% from 15.8% last year, Witt’s power metrics remain solid, suggesting a potential home‑run surge in the second half. Projections hint at 30‑35 home runs for the remainder of the season, positioning him as a strong buy‑low candidate for power‑heavy leagues. The combination of higher steal chances and patient hitting makes him a top‑three shortstop target if the Royals’ recent wall adjustments hold.

Fernando Tatis Jr., 2B/OF – Padres (99% rostered)

Tatis split his season with a .266 average and one home run through May, then exploded to a .291 average and four homers after June 1. His barrel rate stayed at 6.5% in both halves, while his pulled‑air rate dropped to a career‑low 8.9%, though his bat speed remains elite at 79.1 mph and his exit velocity on pulled fly balls averages 104.2 mph. The downside is that average distance fell to 277 feet, well under the 300+ feet seen in prior seasons.

The Padres’ aggressive base‑running approach is paying off, with a 28% stolen‑base opportunity rate that would be a career high if sustained. After being labeled a buy‑low earlier, Tatis is now showing stronger exit velocities and higher stolen‑base chances, supporting a second‑half comeback narrative.

Tyler Soderstrom, 1B/OF – Athletics (92% rostered)

Soderstrom returned from a brief IL stint for a hip issue and has trimmed his swinging‑strike rate to 9% while raising his contact rate to 80.3%. A 6.9% barrel rate and a 16.7% pulled‑air rate mark improvements over his 2024 campaign. Even with a dip in EV50 to 101.6 mph, he still ranks in the upper tier of hard‑hit players.

The Athletics’ park, ranked sixth for left‑hander home‑run factors league‑wide, should amplify his power potential, especially with summer heat and possible ball‑drag reductions. Rest‑of‑season projections point toward 28 home runs, 160‑170 runs plus RBIs, and a .270 batting average if his current trajectory continues.

His elevated walk rate of 13% demonstrates added plate discipline without a drop in swing rate, making him an attractive option for deeper leagues seeking both power and on‑base skills. The combination of a hitter‑friendly environment and improved metrics hints at a power spike in the second half.

These five players illustrate how expected metrics can uncover hidden value. By focusing on underlying skills rather than surface stats, fantasy managers can spot sleepers who are primed for a breakout once the second half begins.