Birkdale’s 126th Open Tests Top Golfers

Major Course Changes

The layout at Royal Birkdale has been overhauled for this week’s championship. Five, 14 and 15 have been completely redone, with the old par‑3 14th turning into a short‑game practice area. The par‑3 seventh was trimmed and its green rebuilt, while the final stretch (holes 16‑17) now features new tees, bunkers and green contours.

Yardage sits at 7,223 yards, a 67‑yard increase that still keeps the course at par 70. Unlike the length‑focused venues of recent majors, Birkdale is expected to favor accuracy more than distance, similar to historic tests like Royal Troon and Royal Liverpool. The modest yardage boost means players will need to prioritize fairways and scrambling, though the forecast of mild wind and warm temperatures should keep conditions firm.

Finding fairways remains crucial, but the softer greens will amplify the need for precise putting. The course’s new look is a nostalgic return to the Southport links after a four‑year absence, recalling Jordan Spieth’s dramatic win in 2017.

Top 10 Favorites and What Sets Them Apart

Scottie Scheffler enters as the clear leader after a missed cut at the Scottish Open gave him extra practice rounds at Birkdale. His recent improvement in approach play should shine on a course that rewards precision, making him the outright favorite. He’s ranked No. 1 out of 156 players in the provided model.

Matt Fitzpatrick is riding high after a solid showing at the Scottish and has a strong fit for Birkdale’s short game. He can navigate the tricky greens and avoid trouble, which could be decisive in a week where scrambling matters. His form suggests he’s in top shape for a major breakthrough.

Tommy Fleetwood returns to his historical strength at the Southport links, having posted a T‑27 in 2017 and several top‑16 finishes since. His tee‑to‑green consistency and home‑course comfort make him a looming threat. Fleetwood’s track record at this event adds credibility to his candidacy.

Rory McIlroy is back after a strong 2017 performance and will likely rely heavily on his driver, which has been on fire recently. While Birkdale isn’t his classic forte, his ability to attack angles could earn him a high finish. Expect McIlroy to push for fairways and use his length to compensate for the course’s demands.

Viktor Hovland has been struggling a bit in majors but his tee‑to‑green numbers have been elite over the past month. He’s looking to snap a two‑cut streak and could benefit from the course’s emphasis on accuracy over sheer distance. If his putting stabilizes, he might break through at a major for the first time.

Alex Fitzpatrick turned a missed cut at the Scottish into a valuable practice session and has been a top‑10 tee‑to‑green performer on Tour. He also boasts a solid record at Hoylake, where he finished T‑17 in 2023, hinting at a good course fit this week. His short game reliability could be the difference between a good round and a podium spot.

Jon Rahm showed fighting spirit after a rough start at the Scottish, improving his driving stats there. Coming off an U.S. Open missed cut, he’ll be keen to end the major calendar on a positive note. Birkdale’s fairway‑focused layout could be more forgiving than Renaissance, giving him a better chance to shine.

Xander Schauffele missed the cut at the Scottish and has a cold putter this season, but he still brings a win and four straight top‑17 finishes at The Open. He was T‑20 here in 2017, suggesting a knack for the venue. If his short game steadies, he could post another solid major effort.

Tom Kim is being watched for a return to the form that produced a T‑2 at Liverpool, rather than the recent missed cuts. He was high in the model before his Scottish victory and showed improved driving recently. The benign conditions could allow his ball‑striking to shine, making him a dark horse candidate.

Collin Morikawa has been trending upward, though his short game has been a concern. Major events that emphasize accuracy over length suit his game, and he already has one victory on this type of course. If he can lock down his putting, he could be a contender for the title.

Who Could Upset the Favorites

Tyrrell Hatton has posted several top‑20 finishes in recent Opens and pairs a top‑5 putter with momentum from an LIV win and a U.S. Open T‑7. The course’s shorter yardage and firm greens should let his putting shine, making him a dark‑horse contender.

Aaron Rai has a modest Open record but a major win under his belt. As one of the world’s most accurate players, he should perform well in forgiving conditions. His refined short game could be the key to cracking the top tens at a venue that rewards precision.

Eugenio Chacarra has cooled after consecutive DP World Tour victories but remains among the best total drivers on Tour. If he can sort out his short game, he has the raw talent to contend for a top spot. His recent form suggests he could break into the major rotations.

J.J. Spaun struggled at Shinnecock but boasts a strong short game and improved iron play. Birkdale’s layout limits the chance to “bomb and gouge,” which should align with his style. A solid performance could see him finish well inside the top 30.

Sam Burns is looking to move beyond a top‑30 finish at The Open, something he has never achieved. His elite tee‑to‑green metrics and world‑class putting this season set him up for a breakthrough. A solid round could finally see him crack the 30‑marker in a major.

Bryson DeChambeau will likely avoid a fourth major missed cut this year, but overtaking the elite field seems unlikely. His length and straight‑away driving could be an advantage, though his irons and short game still need work. A decent round would be a success for his campaign.

Jordan Spieth is not a favorite in the model, yet his history at this event—including a 2017 victory—cannot be ignored. After a prolonged dry spell, Spieth could be motivated to revive his major career. Pressure could work in his favor, urging him to perform beyond recent expectations.

In the end, Birkdale’s revamped layout sets up a classic test of accuracy and short‑game finesse. The field is deep, the weather cooperative, and history suggests that players who can navigate the new challenges may emerge as champions. Keep an eye on the top‑ranked names, but also watch the under‑dogs who can capitalize on a course that rewards precision over power.

Overall, this 126th Open promises to blend the tradition of the Open with fresh design elements, making it a compelling event for fans and professionals alike. As the leaderboard fills with familiar faces and emerging talents, the contest to claim the coveted claret jug will be decided on who can best adapt to the new Birkdale experience.