The Open Championship’s Historic 16-Way Contenders

One of golf’s most curious streaks could finally be challenged this weekend at Royal Birkdale. For four decades, the Open winner has emerged within four strokes after Round 2, a pattern that this year leaves a record 16 players in the hunt. Lucas Herbert’s sensational 62 put him at –8, instantly making him the early leader and cementing his place among the historic contenders. The pressure is intense, especially for players who have yet to taste major glory.

Lucas Herbert – The 62 That Upended History

Herbert posted a stunning 62 to seat himself at –8, instantly becoming the Open’s early favorite. A missed five‑footer for a first‑ever 61 in a major still lingers, but he handling the heartbreak with mature poise. At 9.2% odds, he now carries the weight of a lifetime ambition for his first major triumph. The pressure will only grow as the field tightens around his impressive score.

Jackson Suber – A First‑Time European Dream

Suber, who has never claimed a major spotlight, arrived on European soil for the first time this week and quickly claimed the first‑round lead with a 69 – 1. Three top‑10 finishes this season show he is on a upward trajectory, making his under‑dog status intriguing. Winning the Claret Jug would be a stunning upset for a player accustomed to playing American courses. At just 3.1% probability, the gamble remains steep but not impossible.

Cam Young – The World’s Best Without a Major

Young, ranked fourth globally, holds the dubious distinction of being the premier player never to have won a major. He has posted top‑four finishes in each of the four Grand Slam events, hinting that a breakthrough may be overdue. The mental strain of repeated near‑misses could be a hidden factor this week. With 9.3% odds, the odds are better than most outsiders, yet the major‑drought persists.

Ryan Gerard – Climbing the Rankings

Gerard turned pro four years ago but only secured full Tour status last season, earning one victory and a T8 at the PGA. He now sits at No. 28 worldwide, ahead of notable names like Patrick Cantlay and Shane Lowry. A major win would be a capstone for a player who has shown he belongs among the elite. At 5.7% probability, the chance is modest but not negligible.

Sam Burns – Two‑Round 62, One Early Baby

Burns mirrored Herbert’s explosive round with his own 62 on Friday, adding the flair of a recent U.S. Open runner‑up and a Masters T7 to his résumé. He was set to be home for a newborn, but his daughter arrived early, keeping him in the fray. The blend of scoring brilliance and personal momentum makes him a dark‑horse at 4.9% odds. That early‑season form suggests he is ripe for a breakthrough.

Bryson DeChambeau – A Penalty Shadows a Strong Position

DeChambeau surged into contention with a birdie at 18, slipping to within a shot of the lead before a two‑shot penalty for a rules violation reversed much of that progress. Questions swirl about whether he will tee it up again, yet he remains in the mix at 4.8% (down from 11.5% before the penalty). His ability to battle scrutiny will be a key storyline as the week unfolds.

Si Woo Kim – The Ranked Player with Limited Major Success

Kim sits 21st in the world but has only one top‑10 in 37 major appearances, missing the cut 17 times overall, including five at The Open. This week marks uncharted territory for a player who has largely faded in major settings. A revival would be a notable upset, though the odds sit at 6.4%. His experience on links courses could be a wild card.

Scottie Scheffler – Early Fire Extinguished

Scheffler ignited the field with four birdies in his first six holes, only to stall and collect just a handful of birdies thereafter. He leads the tour in birdie opportunities under ten feet, yet his putting short game has been errant. Despite a four‑stroke deficit, his 11.2% winning probability reflects his star power and untapped potential. A late charge could still reshape the leaderboard.

Tommy Fleetwood – Hometown Hopeful

Fleetwood, chasing his elusive first major, will feel the crowd’s cheers keenly as the course sits just 17 miles from his upbringing. His recent form has been solid, and the emotional backdrop could provide an extra edge. A victory would be richly symbolic for a player who has often flirted with greatness. With a 7% chance, he remains a plausible contender.

Jon Rahm – The Veteran Ready to Reignite

Rahm dodged a penalty after a club‑chucking incident, adding to his narrative of resilience. It has been nearly four full seasons since his last major triumph, yet he has posted six top‑10 finishes in the interim. The veteran’s experience and striking distance make him a favorite for a resurgence, though the odds sit at 5.3%. A strong finish could finally end his major drought.

Robert MacIntyre – The Scottish Thriller

Nicknamed “Bobby Mac,” he possesses the full arsenal to run the table or flip it, depending on the putting weather. With three top‑10 shows at The Open, he understands the links challenge well. Conventional wisdom suggests this championship could be his moment to finally capture a major. The 4.1% probability hints at outsiders, yet a Scottish triumph would feel inevitable.

Alex Fitzpatrick – The Younger Brother’s Turn

Fitzpatrick already secured a U.S. Open title, propelling himself onto the global stage, and he has shown he belongs beyond his brother’s shadow. While his sibling will miss the weekend at Royal Birkdale, Alex will start the contest in contention. His upward trajectory adds intrigue, though the odds are modest at 2.9%. A major win would cement his independent standing.

Matt Wallace – A Long‑Standing Absence

Wallace’s most recent major relevance came at the 2019 PGA Championship, and he has never been in contention at The Open. The pattern of missed opportunities underscores his struggle on links soil. Even with a 1.5% chance, his situation highlights how rare it is to break through on historic courses. This week offers another chance, however unlikely.

Bud Cauley – A Late‑Blooming Confidence

Cauley, once a prominent amateur, secured his first PGA Tour win just weeks ago at the RBC Canadian Open, injecting fresh confidence into his game. After years of obscurity, the recent triumph suggests he has re‑entered the elite conversation. At 1.6% odds, he remains a bit‑player, yet his momentum could surprise the field.

Thomas Detry – A Single Top‑10 Reminder

Detry earned a T4 at the PGA Championship a few years back, his lone top‑10 in majors, and he has yet to replicate that success. His limited exposure in major events makes this week a fresh canvas. Though the odds sit at 1%, any strong performance would be a notable breakout for a player who has yet to claim a major highlight. Simplicity and skill may be his best allies.

Francesco Molinari – The Italian Champion Reappears

Molinari’s gleaming moment arrived in 2018 when he claimed the Open with a 69 in the final round, becoming Italy’s first major winner. Since that dazzling victory, he has largely faded from contention. A sudden return would rewrite his legacy, yet the odds sit at 1%. The memory of his triumph still lingers, adding intrigue to his current campaign.

Rory McIlroy – The Lurking Possibility

McIlroy arrives with a modest –1, reminiscent of his backdoor top‑10 finishes during a prolonged major drought. History shows he can ignite quickly when conditions align, though he will likely need two strong rounds to close the gap. A late surge would echo his past ability to rebound from slow starts. At 1.4% odds, he remains a wildcard for those dreaming of a comeback.