Wisconsin Badgers 2026 Season Predictions by ESPN

With just over a month left before the season opener, ESPN Analytics released its matchup predictor for the 2026 college football campaign.

Season Outlook and Expected Record

The model forecasts the Badgers to finish with an overall record of eight wins and four losses, and a 6‑3 mark in Big Ten play.

Non‑Conference Slate

Wisconsin is heavily favored to begin the year against a top contender. The program is listed as a 7% chance to defeat the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, while the Fighting Irish carry a 93% probability of victory. The Badgers then face Western Illinois with a 99% win probability.

Big Ten Schedule Breakdown

The conference calendar shows a mix of challenges and opportunities. Only three opponents—Penn State, USC, and Iowa—are projected to defeat Wisconsin during league play. The remaining games feature win percentages ranging from the low teens to the high 60s for the Badgers.

• Week 4 at Penn State: Badgers 19.7% – Penn State 80.3%
• Week 7 at UCLA: Badgers 55.8% – UCLA 44.2%
• Week 8 vs. USC: Badgers 23.2% – USC 76.8%
• Week 9 at Iowa: Badgers 27.8% – Iowa 72.2%
• Week 10 vs. Rutgers: Badgers 72.0% – Rutgers 28.0%
• Week 11 at Maryland: Badgers 53.8% – Maryland 46.2%
• Week 12 at Purdue: Badgers 61.3% – Purdue 38.7%
• Week 13 vs. Minnesota: Badgers 68.4% – Minnesota 31.6%

Neutral Site Note: * = Neutral site

Conference Matchup Note: **Bold** entries above denote Big Ten games.

Looking ahead, the projections suggest that Wisconsin must improve against top competition and capitalize on matchups against Rutgers, Minnesota, and Purdue to reach an eight‑win season.