2024 MVP & Cy Young Race: Giants’ Arraez & Webb Shine

The latest SB Nation Reacts poll grabs attention as the American League MVP race heats up, with voters divided among four top candidates. Yordan Alvarez leads the ballot at 41%, followed by Junior Caminero at 26%, Bobby Witt Jr. at 23%, and Nick Kurtz at 10%. Alvarez’s surge comes after a limited 48‑game stint last season, where he posted .273/.367/.430 with six homers.

Alvarez now slashes .318/.426/.633 with 31 home runs and 70 RBI in 96 games, putting him on pace to break his 2022 career high of 37 homers. Despite the power surge, Alvarez sits at 4.4 fWAR, just behind Witt Jr.’s league‑leading 4.8 fWAR, which also benefits from a premium defensive position at shortstop.

Caminero, a 22‑year‑old, offers a .279/.372/.555 line with 28 homers and 59 RBI, but his defense at third base lags (–1 UA, –8 FRV). That (-1) defensive rating is the fifth‑worst among all positions, a factor that may hurt his MVP chances. Caminero’s fWAR sits at 3.2, well below the top two.

The poll also shows Nick Kurtz, a first baseman with a solid rookie follow‑up, but the article points out that the “real answer” is Bobby Witt Jr., whose 4.8 fWAR ranks second in the league, behind only Pete Crow‑Armstrong’s 6.0 fWAR.

NL MVP Fight: Voters Mis‑calibrate Soto vs. Schwarber

In the National League, the MVP conversation is skewed, according to the article, with voters overvaluing Mookie Soto and ignoring elite performers. Soto leads Schwarber in fWAR (2.9 to 2.5), but Schwarber carries a higher home‑run total (32 vs. 21). Defensive metrics favor Soto, who has logged 49 games at field compared to Schwarber’s four.

The NL’s top five fWAR list reveals the real contenders: Pete Crow‑Armstrong (6.0), James Wood (4.6), Otto Lopez (4.3), Luis Arraez (3.7), and JJ Wetherholt (3.5). Wood leads the NL in wRC+ at 166, while Arraez’s defensive prowess (3.7 fWAR despite a 127 wRC+) makes him a strong Giants candidate.

The article argues that defense should factor into MVP voting, and Arraez’s fielding runs elevate him above his offensive numbers. If the Giants hope for a postseason award, Arraez is the most likely to compete, especially with a potential NL batting‑title run.

Also worth noting, Rafael Devers has a 154 wRC+, the ninth‑best in the NL, but his limited remaining games make a deep run unlikely.

Cy Young Downballot: Inside the NL Pitching Race

The NL Cy Young conversation is a crowded field, with several arms posting strong fWAR marks. Misiorowski leads at 4.4 fWAR, followed by Sanchez (4.0), Luzardo (3.3), and Skenes (3.2). Yamamoto and Sale sit tied at 2.7, while Cincinnati’s Chase Burns (2.9) and Pittsburgh’s Braxton Ashcraft (2.8) round out the top tier.

For the Giants, Landen Rupp (2.1) and Logan Webb (1.9) sit just outside the top ten, a far cry from Webb’s previous Cy Young recognition over the last four seasons. Webb’s recent stretch has been uneven, and Misiorowski’s forearm issues could shift the race later in the year, but no Giant is currently a serious contender.

The article also mentions Cam Schlittler’s rapid ascent to Yankees’ co‑ace and highlights a few deep‑spot candidates who could surprise in the final weeks.

Giants Standouts and Rookie Highlights

Luis Arraez emerges as the lone Giant with genuine award potential, his defensive value lifting his overall impact. Bryce Eldridge is a Rookie of the Year name to watch, though he trails JJ Wetherholt, Sal Stewart, Nolan McLean, and Konnor Griffin in current MLB.com polling.

Arraez’s defensive runs make him more valuable than his .127 wRC+ would suggest, and a batting title could further boost his candidacy. Meanwhile, Eldridge’s breakout could siphon votes away from the current rookie leaders if his performance continues to climb.

The poll’s surprising omissions—Soto’s slight overvaluation, Schwarber’s defensive deficit, and the Giants’ modest pitching presence—underscore how voter perception can diverge from the underlying stats. As the season winds down, watch for Arraez, Eldridge, and Webb to make late‑season pushes.

Expect the final weeks to sharpen the MVP and Cy Young narratives, with performance trends likely to shift both the poll numbers and the underlying statistical rankings. The Giants will hope Arraez’s defensive wizardry and Eldridge’s rookie electricity can capture voter attention before the awards window closes.