Pat Fitzgerald’s Michigan State Faces Dismal 2026 Outlook

The Spartans are gearing up for a difficult campaign as Pat Fitzgerald begins his first season back in the Big Ten. Rebuilding in the transfer‑portal era already poses challenges, and the schedule adds another layer of difficulty. National projections now paint a stark picture for a program still searching for its footing.

Brad Crawford’s Bleak Projections for the Spartans

CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford forecasts a 3‑9 overall mark for Michigan State, with just a 1‑8 record in Big Ten play. The only guaranteed non‑conference victories are slated against Toledo and Eastern Michigan, giving the team a modest early cushion. In the conference slate, the lone projected win comes against Northwestern, while the rest of the division is expected to dominate.

The projected losses read like a tour of the league’s powerhouses and beyond: a road defeat at Notre Dame, followed by setbacks at Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers. The upper‑tier contenders—UCLA, Michigan, Washington, and Oregon—are all forecast to emerge victorious over the Spartans. Those results would cement a grueling eight‑game losing streak inside the conference.

Early Season Bright Spot in September

Fitzgerald’s squad does hold a sliver of optimism in September, with two non‑conference games on the horizon. Victories over Toledo and Eastern Michigan would provide a small base for the win column early in the year. Those early wins, however, are expected to be the only ones before the conference grind intensifies.

Even with a September boost, the schedule offers little respite. The road loss to Notre Dame sets a negative tone, and the subsequent stretch against top teams appears designed to test depth and resilience. Crawford’s model suggests the Spartans will struggle to keep pace once the Big Ten cadence arrives.

Coaching Transition Adds Uncertainty

Crawford emphasized that coaching changes at Michigan State bring extra uncertainty in the ultra‑competitive Big Ten. That instability translates directly into on‑field challenges, as the team contends with a lack of established depth and cohesion against elite opponents. The result, according to the analyst, is a team that will serve as the “proverbial punching bag” for many of its conference rivals.

A 3‑9 finish would keep the Spartans well outside any postseason conversation and force difficult discussions about the program’s immediate trajectory. The upcoming season will be a critical yardstick for evaluating how quickly Fitzgerald can stabilize the program amid a broader rebuilding effort.