2026 Rhode Island State Amateur Bracket Predictions

Day 2 Qualifying Survival

Rain fell all day at Ledgemont Country Club while winds tightened in the afternoon, forcing players to focus on survival rather than scoring aggressive rounds. Bobby Leopold held his composure after a three‑putt bogey on the opening hole and posted a 1‑over 72, securing medalist honors with a two‑day total of 67‑72‑139. The cut left seven competitors to contest a playoff for the final spot in Wednesday’s match‑play field.

Weather & Course Impact

The forecast promises a dramatic 180 for the week ahead, with rain tapering off but wind remaining a factor through the remainder of the tournament. Match play adds a new layer of strategy, rewarding steady play over aggressive risk‑taking. Players who survived the rain‑soaked qualifying now brace for the next two rounds under shifting conditions.

First‑Round Picks Overview

The bracket is filled with contrasting storylines, from left‑handed wizardry to home‑court advantages. Below is a concise list of the predicted first‑round victors.

• Cole Vieira (No. 17) edges Jasper Bruin Slot (No. 16) thanks to Vieira’s left‑handed edge.
• Shawn Clary (No. 8) defeats Adam Gorman (No. 25); Clary’s 6‑ft‑3 frame and dunk potential give him the edge.
• Harry Dessel (No. 9) topples David Marshall (No. 24); the robot analogy underscores Dessel’s relentless precision.
• Tyler Cooke (No. 29) shocks Sam Powell (No. 4) as a Rhode Island native carries the day.
• Jesse Hellring (No. 20) out‑lasts Brendan Lemp (No. 13) in a matchup that offers the best name clash.
• Max Jackson (No. 5) brushes aside Nate Winsor (No. 28) with a locked‑in performance.
• Matthew Costello (No. 21) bests John Jackopsic (No. 12) because Costello represents a program aiming for athletic victories.
• Nathan Davis (No. 2) slips past Antonio Torres (No. 31) while avoiding Metacomet bias.
• Sonny Kollet (No. 15) tops Jason Kalin (No. 18) based on a larger Instagram following.
• Rocco Capalbo (No. 26) upsets Kevin Silva (No. 7) as a high‑school bias favors the local talent.
• Jake Bauer (No. 10) defeats Roland Gibson (No. 23) fueled by last year’s final regret.
• Defending champion Mike Calef (No. 3) settles Matt Shubley (No. 30) without drama.
• Tim Carroll (No. 13) beats Henry Sheehan (No. 19) to set up a clubmate duel.
• Drew MacLeod (No. 27), the Providence Journal High School Player of the Year, edges Kevin Blaser for a potential deep run.
• Austin Cilley (No. 11) out‑plays John Drohen (No. 22) as the most athletic competitor in the field.

Round of 16 Forecast

The knockout stage tightens the field. The predictions hinge onmatch‑ups that blend skill, experience, and a dash of personality. Vieira is set to dismantle Leopold, while Dessel’s relentless style beats Clary. Cooke’s local pride falters against Hellring. Jackson leverages his soccer endurance to edge Costello. Kollet’s home‑course advantage carries him past Davis. Bauer’s seasoned play nullsifies Capalbo’s upset bid. Calef stays in control versus Carroll. Finally, MacLeod’s breakout momentum topples Cilley.

Quarterfinal Outlook

Four teens remain after the Round of 16. Jackson faces Hellring in a clash of power versus precision; Jackson’s steady play is favored. Bauer meets Kollet; the veteran’s experience gives him the edge, though Kollet’s social following could stir the crowd. Calef, the defending champion, keeps his composure against MacLeod and advances. The semifinal line‑up will feature Jackson versus Calef and Bauer versus the surviving underdog.

Semifinal & Final Predictions

Jackson’s low‑key resilience overcomes Leopold in one semifinal, while Calef dispatches Bauer, who struggles with the unpredictable wind. The final pits the young talent of Jackson against the seasoned champion Calef. Though Calef could become the 15th consecutive winner and the 11th since World War II, recent form suggests the upset will stand, with Jackson capturing the title at age 14.

Key Players to Watch

Bobby Leopold’s medalist performance sets a early benchmark; his ability to bounce back from a three‑putt will be tested later. Max Jackson’s age‑defying poise and refined short game could reshape the tournament narrative. Drew MacLeod’s recognition as High School Player of the Year signals a rising star. Finally, defending champ Calef carries the weight of history but must navigate a field that rewards adaptability under adverse weather.

Bottom Line

The 2026 Rhode Island State Amateur promises a blend of survival golf and high‑stakes match play. While early predictions favor veterans like Calef and Jackson’s meteoric rise, the unpredictable nature of rain‑soaked courses means any finalist could emerge. Keep an eye on the young talent and the local fervor that may tip the balance in unexpected directions.